WNC Index

Posted on September 15, 2010
By robertsonrw in WNC Index

According to the July report on the Western NC economic index, economic activity fell 0.3 percent in July 2010. According to the report [PDF], “The index, which tracks the level of economic activity in 25 western North Carolina counties, registered 98.8 in July. This marks the third consecutive monthly decline, which last occurred during the first quarter of 2009.”

ASU News has more details.

“The recession was severe and the recovery was expected to be slow and difficult, and that is exactly what is happening at the regional, state and national levels,” said Todd Cherry, a co-author of the report and director of the Center for Economic Research and Policy Analysis at Appalachian.

“Employment fell in the region and across the state, but the losses were particularly heavy in the region,” he said. “Western North Carolina lost more than 5,500 jobs, which is near the levels experienced at the end of 2008.” …

“We are continuing to see a combination of lower employment and lower unemployment,” said Cherry, “which suggests that people are working part time when they are unable to secure full-time work, while others are simply becoming discouraged in their search for full-time employment and are leaving the workforce.”

Seasonally adjusted WNC unemployment registered 10.0 percent in July—down 0.4 points from June. The state unemployment rate fell 0.2 points, while the national unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.5 percent.

 

Posted on June 18, 2010
By robertsonrw in WNC Index

Economic activity within western North Carolina increased again in April, improving by 0.6 percent, according to the Western NC Economic Index. The Index, which tracks 25 counties, has shown improvement in seven of the past eight months. Full report. [PDF]

wncindexapr10 According to the report, "The increase in April follows a strong first quarter of 2010, in which the regional economy grew at an annual rate of 3.6 percent. The national economy grew at a 3.0 percent rate during the same period." Yet unemployment still remains high. "The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate within the region's rural counties fell 0.3 points to 11.5 percent in April. In the region's metro areas, unemployment increased 0.1 point in Asheville to 8.9 percent and decreased 0.5 points in Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir to 13.9 percent."

The WNC Index is compiled by Dr. Todd Cherry, economics professor and director of the Center for Economic Research and Policy Analysis (CERPA). He says the April report shows both improvement and areas of concern.

"The regional economy grew 3.6 percent in the first quarter of the year, which is a bit better than the national figure of 3.0 percent during this period; however, this does not mean the region is out of the woods," said Todd Cherry, a co-author of the report and director of the Center for Economic Research and Policy Analysis at Appalachian. "The national economy remains fragile and global conditions provide reasons for concern, but the region has begun to move in the right direction in recent months."
The economic growth is slowly adding new jobs in the region as well, with the largest increase occurring in Alleghany and Yancey counties. "The region's economic growth is beginning to translate to new jobs and lower unemployment," Cherry said. "Employment has increased each of the past three months, but there is a very long way to go. We've only regained one of the six jobs we’ve lost over the past couple of years."

 

Posted on February 11, 2010
By robertsonrw in WNC Index

From the Center for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, the Western North Carolina Economic Index showed 2009 ending with slight economic growth. indexdec09

Economic activity in Western North Carolina rose by 1 percentage point in December, representing the third consecutive quarter of improvement.
The index of 25 counties includes Alleghany, Ashe, Watauga and Wilkes.
"It appears we are turning a corner," said Todd Cherry, a co-author of the report and director of the Center for Economic Research and Policy Analysis at Appalachian State University.
"We haven't ended a year with three consecutive months of regional growth in about two years. There is a long way to go yet, but the first step is beginning to see consistency in positive news about regional activity."

The full report is here. [PDF]

 

Posted on December 10, 2009
By robertsonrw in WNC Index

The economy activity of Western North Carolina declined by .1 percent in October, according to the monthly WNC Economic Index. Produced by the Center for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, the report traces employment figures for 25 Western North Carolina counties.

The region has lost jobs in 22 of the past 23 months, according to a press release. index0008

"Rural parts of the region continue to struggle more than the rest of the region, which was the case in the 2001 recession," said Todd Cherry, a co-author of the Western North Carolina Economic Report and director of the Center for Economic Research and Policy Analysis at Appalachian.
"While there were job gains in eight of the 25 counties, job losses continue to be a problem," Cherry said. "The region lost another 3,000 jobs in October. It may be some time before we begin seeing broad-based growth in regional employment."
The seasonally adjusted WNC unemployment rate registered 12.4 percent in October—up 0.2 points from September. The state unemployment rate also increased 0.2 points to 11.0 percent. The national unemployment rate registered 10.2 percent—up 0.4 points from September (revised).

Additional statistics, including a county-by-county-listing, can be found in the October report. [PDF]

 

Posted on November 11, 2009
By robertsonrw in WNC Index

The September 2009 report from the Western North Carolina Economic Index is out. Produced by the Center for Economic Research and Policy Analysis (CERPA), the report shows that "After making gains in the second quarter, the regional economy contracted in the third quarter." You can read the report as a PDF.

ASU News Bureau has more details. sept09wnci

Unemployment rates in Western North Carolina have more than doubled in the past two years from just under 5.0 percent to 12.2 percent. And while the region's economy experienced positive growth in the spring, the region lost some of those gains in the third quarter of this year.
"Employment continues to be a problem," said Todd Cherry, a co-author of the Western North Carolina Economic Report and director of the Center for Economic Research and Policy Analysis at Appalachian State University. "The region lost jobs in 22 of the last 24 months. The cumulative effect of this trend is tremendous, particularly for the hardest hit areas."
The Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton metro area has lost about 12 percent of its jobs during the past two years, while Asheville lost nearly 7 percent of its jobs during this period.
The region lost more than 19,000 jobs through the first nine months of 2009.

 

Posted on September 11, 2009
By robertsonrw in WNC Index

The Western North Carolina Economic Index for July has been released. It finds job losses slowing in the 22 counties which comprise the Index.

index0709 The Index was down .2% for the month. Still, the region has lost over 13,000 jobs since January 2009, and nearly 40,000 since January 2008. The Wilkes Journal Patriot has more details.

County-level seasonally adjusted unemployment fell in 22 of the 25 western counties in July. The index showed seasonally adjusted employment for western North Carolina decreased 0.54 percent in July while the statewide adjusted jobless rate dropped 0.3 percent.
The western region's seasonally adjusted jobless rate was 11.1 percent in July—down 0.7 points from June. The state jobless rate was unchanged at 11.0 percent. The national jobless rate was 9.4 percent, down 0.1 points from June. ...
The overall jobless rate in the seven High Country counties (Wilkes, Ashe, Alleghany, Watauga, Avery, Mitchell and Yancey) was 10.8 in July, the lowest all year and down from a high of 12.4 in February.

The WNC Economic Index and Report is a cooperative effort by the Center for Economic Research and Policy Analysis at Appalachian State and AdvantageWest. The report is compiled and written by Todd L. Cherry, John W. Dawson and Richard Crepeau.

 

Posted on July 6, 2009
By robertsonrw in WNC Index

Dr. Todd Cherry, who oversees the Western North Carolina Economic Index, is rather pessimistic on a quick turnaround in the economy. In a lengthy article in Sunday's Asheville Citizen-Times, Cherry is one of many sources discussing the current economic trends. He explains his thoughts on what is happening now, and what may happen tomorrow. Cherry

Economists like to talk about the letters "u" and "v" when they discuss the way the economy comes back from a recession, a reference to the way the letters mimic the shapes they might see on a graph charting economic figures. They use "v" to describe a quick recovery and "u" to talk about a slow one. These days, most expect a “u.”
"What we're going to be facing is a slow and uneven recovery," said Todd Cherry, an economics professor at Appalachian State University.
Why? The downturn hit practically all sectors of the economy, Cherry said, and was especially severe in the financial sector, which is crucial to economic activity.
Consumer spending was artificially high before the recession, he said: "We were in such an excessive state of economic activity … it's going to be a long time before we get back to that level of activity."

While Cherry sounds down on the economy, his is actually somewhat optimistic compared to the outlook of Michael Walden, an economist at N.C. State University.

"It appears like we're kind of at the bottom, and we're seeing some signs that we might be on the path to recovery, but what that path looks like is uncertain," Cherry said.
Walden has a darker view. "The economy is still in a very, very weakened position," he said. "I think the best that can said … is the economy is going down at a slower rate."

 

Posted on January 16, 2009
By robertsonrw in WNC Index

The latest Western North Carolina Economic Index is out. It focuses on unemployment statistics from November, and shows job losses mounting.

The Asheville Citizen-Times has a report on the latest Index.

"The employment picture is ugly. The region has lost more than 18,000 jobs since June and nearly half of those losses occurred in November," said Todd Cherry, director of ASU's Center for Economic Research and Policy Analysis. Cherry is co-author of the WNC Index, which tracks economic activity across 25 western counties.
Across the region, economic activity decreased 0.3 percent in November. The mountain economy has declined at an annual rate of 2.8 percent since June 2008.

You can view the full report at the WNC Economic Index page. It is maintained within the new Center for Economic Research and Policy Analysis (CERPA). It is housed within the economics department of Walker College.

 

Posted on August 18, 2008
By robertsonrw in WNC Index

Unemployment June 08Western North Carolina's economic activity increased 0.4 percent in June, according to the latest report from the WNC Index. Employment grew slightly while the unemployment rate remained unchanged for the 25 counties covered.

You can read the full report here. [PDF]

The Asheville-Citizen Times reports "economists remain cautious and point to a weak economy."

"Employment is down from the beginning of 2008, unemployment is 0.6 points higher, and the number of residential building permits has fallen dramatically," said Todd Cherry, a professor in the Department of Economics at Appalachian State University and a co-author of the report.
According to the index, the regional economy declined in the fourth quarter of 2007 and was flat in the first quarter of 2008. "There was a contraction in the regional economy, and it is too early to determine whether it was the bottom of this downturn," Cherry said.

 

Posted on May 7, 2008
By robertsonrw in WNC Index

Western North Carolina's economic activity remains weak, falling 0.2 percent in March and erasing earlier gains during the first two months of the year. That's according to the monthly WNC Economic Index, compiled within the Walker College of Business at Appalachian State.

A full report is here.

"We had some positive movement during the first two months of the year, but that was wiped out by the losses in March," said Todd Cherry, an author of the report. Cherry is a professor of economics at Appalachian.
"The regional economy continues to teeter on the edge of a recession, but the main story is the magnitude and persistence of the economic weaknesses," he said. "Recessions are designed by negative growth. The actual growth rate reveals much more."
Cherry says the region's job losses are troubling. "Looking at the employment numbers from the first quarter, Western North Carolina is not holding up as well as the rest of the state," he said. "The region lost nearly 3,000 jobs, or 0.5 percent of the workforce, during the first quarter of 2008. The state lost about 13,500 jobs, but that represents 0.3 percent of the statewide workforce."
Seasonally adjusted employment for WNC fell 0.25 percent in March, and declined 0.50 percent in the first quarter of 2008.

 

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